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EKONOMETRIKA

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Ekonometrika adalah ilmu yang membahas masalah pengukuran hubungan ekonomi. Dengan demikian, Ekonometrika adalah ilmu yang mencakup teori ekonomi, matematika, dan statistika dalam satu kesatuan sistem yang bulat, menjadi suatu ilmu yang berdiri sendiri dan berlainan dengan ilmu ekonomi; matematika; maupun statistika. Ekonometrika digunakan sebagai alat analisis ekonomi yang bertujuan untuk menguji kebenaran teorama-teorama teori ekonomi yang berupa hubungan antarvariabel ekonomi dengan data empirik.
Teorama-teorama yang persifat apriori pada ilmu ekonomi dinyatakan terlebih dahulu dalam bentuk matematik sehingga dapat dilakukan pengujian terhadap teorama-teorama itu. Bentuk matematik teorama ekonomi ini disebut model. Pembuatan model ekonometri merupakan salah satu sumbangan ekonometrika di samping pembuatan prediksi (peramalan atau forecasting) dan pembuatan berbagai keputusan alternatif yang bersifat kuantitatif sehingga dapat mempermudah para pengambil keputusan untuk menentukan pilihan.
Salah satu bagian paling penting dari ekonometri adalah analisis regresi. Analisis ini digunakan untuk mengetahui kaitan antara satu variabel dengan variabel yang lain. Berdasarkan data yang digunakan, ekonometri dibagi menjadi tiga analisis, yaitu analisis runtun waktu (time series), antar-wilayah (cross section), dan analisis data panel. Analisis runtun waktu menjelaskan mengenai perilaku suatu variabel sepanjang beberapa waktu berturut-turut, berbeda dengan analisis antar-wilayah yang menjelaskan antara beberapa daerah dalam satu waktu tertentu (snapshot). Sementara itu analisis data panel menggabungkan antara data runtun waktu dengan data antar-wilayah.

Daftar isi 1 Awal perkembangan ekonometri 2 Ekonometri saat ini 3 Tokoh-tokoh ekonometri peraih Nobel 4 Lihat pula

Awal perkembangan ekonometri

Metode kuantitatif dalam ilmu ekonomi sebenarnya telah lama dikembangkan sejak abad ke-18. Vilfredo Pareto (Paris, 15 Juli 1848 -- Jenewa, 19 Agustus 1923) berkontribusi dalam menjelaskan distribusi pendapatan dan pilihan individu melalui pendekatan matematis yang berdasarkan atas teori ekonomi. Selain Pareto, Marie-Esprit-Léon Walras dari Perancis pada abad ke-18 mengembangkan teori keseimbangan umum yang menjelaskan mengenai aliran barang dan jasa dalam perekonomian.
Pada awal tahun 1950-an ekonometri dikembangkan sebagai satu cabang sendiri dari ilmu ekonomi. Jan Tinbergen dari Belanda, yang kini namanya diabadikan sebagai salah satu institusi akademik besar di Eropa (Tinbergen Institute), merupakan salah tokoh utama yang mengembangkan ilmu ini.

Ekonometri saat ini

Saat ini ekonometri telah berkembang sedemikian pesat sehingga banyak jurnal ilmiah yang didedikasikan untuk ilmu ini, seperti Econometrica[1], Journal of Econometrics, Journal of Applied Econometrics[2], dan Journal of the Operational Research[3]. Penggunaan ekonometri telah sedemikian luas sehingga hampir semua jurnal, tesis, disertasi, dan bahkan skripsi dalam ilmu ekonomi memakai ekonometri sebagai salah satu alat yang digunakan. Sementara itu dalam prakteknya, ekonometri terutama dipakai di bank sentral, oleh tim ekonomi pemerintah untuk melakukan perencanaan dan analisis kebijakan ekonomi, dan juga oleh dunia usaha untuk mengoptimalkan kinerja perusahaan. Selain di bidang moneter, ekonometri juga sudah banyak dipakai di berbagai bidang ekonomi yang lain dan juga bisnis dan manajemen, seperti mikroekonomi, marketing, dan finance.
Di Indonesia, penerapan ekonometri masih terbatas dan pengembangan ilmu ini hanya pada lembaga/universitas tertentu saja. Dua dari sedikit akademisi di bidang ekonometri di Indonesia adalah Profesor Insukindro dari Universitas Gadjah Mada terutama berkat penerapan ekonometri untuk ekonomi moneter dan Dr. Ari Kuncoro dari Universitas Indonesia karena pekerjaannya di bidang mikroekonometri.

Tokoh-tokoh ekonometri peraih Nobel

• Jan Tinbergen dan Ragnar Anton Kittil Frisch mendapat Hadiah Nobel Ekonomi tahun 1969 (tahun pertama Hadiah Nobel Ekonomi diberikan) karena mengembangkan dan menerapkan model dinamik untuk analisis ekonomi.
• Lawrence Robert Klein, profesor ekonomi di University of Pennsylvania, mendapat Nobel tahun 1980 berkat pekerjaannya di pemodelan ekonomi melalui komputer.
• Trygve Magnus Haavelmo dihadiahi pada tahun 1989. Kontribusi utamanya pada artikel yang ia tulis tahun 1944 di jurnal Econometrica yang berjudul "The Probability Approach to Econometrics".
• Daniel Little McFadden dan James Joseph Heckman berbagi penghargaan untuk tahun 2000 untuk pekerjaannya di bidang mikroekonometri. McFadden mendirikan laboratorium ekonometri di University of California, Berkeley, Amerika Serikat.
• Robert Fry Engle dan Clive William John Granger pada tahun 2003 karena kontribusi mereka pada pengembangan analisis runtun waktu. Engle menjadi pionir metode autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) sedangkan Granger atas metode kointegrasi.

Lihat pula

Ekonomi

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LINIEAR REGRESSION

In statistics, linear regression is an approach to modeling the relationship between a scalar dependent variable y and one or more explanatory variables denoted X. The case of one explanatory variable is called simple linear regression. For more than one explanatory variable, it is called multiple linear regression. (This in term should be distinguished from multivariate linear regression, where multiple correlated dependent variables are predicted,^{[citation needed]} rather than a single scalar variable.)
In linear regression, data are modelled using linear predictor functions, and unknown model parameters are estimated from the data. Such models are called linear models. Most commonly, linear regression refers to a model in which the conditional mean of y given the value of X is an affine function of X. Less commonly, linear regression could refer to a model in which the median, or some other quantile of the conditional distribution of y given X is expressed as a linear function of X. Like all forms of regression analysis, linear regression focuses on the conditional probability distribution of y given X, rather than on the joint probability distribution of y and X, which is the domain of multivariate analysis.
Linear regression was the first type of regression analysis to be studied rigorously, and to be used extensively in practical applications. This is because models which depend linearly on their unknown parameters are easier to fit than models which are non-linearly related to their parameters and because the statistical properties of the resulting estimators are easier to determine.
Linear regression has many practical uses. Most applications fall into one of the following two broad categories:

• If the goal is prediction, or forecasting, linear regression can be used to fit a predictive model to an observed data set of y and X values. After developing such a model, if an additional value of X is then given without its accompanying value of y, the fitted model can be used to make a prediction of the value of y.
• Given a variable y and a number of variables X₁, ..., X_p that may be related to y, linear regression analysis can be applied to quantify the strength of the relationship between y and the X_j, to assess which X_j may have no relationship with y at all, and to identify which subsets of the X_j contain redundant information about y.

Linear regression models are often fitted using the least squares approach, but they may also be fitted in other ways, such as by minimizing the "lack of fit" in some other norm (as with least absolute deviations regression), or by minimizing a penalized version of the least squares loss function as in ridge regression. Conversely, the least squares approach can be used to fit models that are not linear models. Thus, although the terms "least squares" and "linear model" are closely linked, they are not synonymous.


Given a data set of n statistical units, a linear regression model assumes that the relationship between the dependent variable y_i and the p-vector of regressors x_i is linear. This relationship is modelled through a disturbance term or error variable ε_i — an unobserved random variable that adds noise to the linear relationship between the dependent variable and regressors. Thus the model takes the form

where ^T denotes the transpose, so that x_i^Tβ is the inner product between vectors x_i and β.
Often these n equations are stacked together and written in vector form as

where

Some remarks on terminology and general use:

• is called the regressand, endogenous variable, response variable, measured variable, or dependent variable (see dependent and independent variables.) The decision as to which variable in a data set is modeled as the dependent variable and which are modeled as the independent variables may be based on a presumption that the value of one of the variables is caused by, or directly influenced by the other variables. Alternatively, there may be an operational reason to model one of the variables in terms of the others, in which case there need be no presumption of causality.
• are called regressors, exogenous variables, explanatory variables, covariates, input variables, predictor variables, or independent variables (see dependent and independent variables, but not to be confused with independent random variables). The matrix is sometimes called the design matrix.
  • Usually a constant is included as one of the regressors. For example we can take x_i1 = 1 for i = 1, ..., n. The corresponding element of β is called the intercept. Many statistical inference procedures for linear models require an intercept to be present, so it is often included even if theoretical considerations suggest that its value should be zero.
  • Sometimes one of the regressors can be a non-linear function of another regressor or of the data, as in polynomial regression and segmented regression. The model remains linear as long as it is linear in the parameter vector β.
  • The regressors x_ij may be viewed either as random variables, which we simply observe, or they can be considered as predetermined fixed values which we can choose. Both interpretations may be appropriate in different cases, and they generally lead to the same estimation procedures; however different approaches to asymptotic analysis are used in these two situations.
• is a p-dimensional parameter vector. Its elements are also called effects, or regression coefficients. Statistical estimation and inference in linear regression focuses on β.
• is called the error term, disturbance term, or noise. This variable captures all other factors which influence the dependent variable y_i other than the regressors x_i. The relationship between the error term and the regressors, for example whether they are correlated, is a crucial step in formulating a linear regression model, as it will determine the method to use for estimation.

Example. Consider a situation where a small ball is being tossed up in the air and then we measure its heights of ascent h_i at various moments in time t_i. Physics tells us that, ignoring the drag, the relationship can be modelled as

where β₁ determines the initial velocity of the ball, β₂ is proportional to the standard gravity, and ε_i is due to measurement errors. Linear regression can be used to estimate the values of β₁ and β₂ from the measured data. This model is non-linear in the time variable, but it is linear in the parameters β₁ and β₂; if we take regressors x_i = (x_i1, x_i2)  = (t_i, t_i²), the model takes on the standard form

Assumptions

Standard linear regression models with standard estimation techniques make a number of assumptions about the predictor variables, the response variables and their relationship. Numerous extensions have been developed that allow each of these assumptions to be relaxed (i.e. reduced to a weaker form), and in some cases eliminated entirely. Some methods are general enough that they can relax multiple assumptions at once, and in other cases this can be achieved by combining different extensions. Generally these extensions make the estimation procedure more complex and time-consuming, and may also require more data in order to get an accurate model.
The following are the major assumptions made by standard linear regression models with standard estimation techniques (e.g. ordinary least squares):

• Weak exogeneity. This essentially means that the predictor variables x can be treated as fixed values, rather than random variables. This means, for example, that the predictor variables are assumed to be error-free, that is they are not contaminated with measurement errors. Although not realistic in many settings, dropping this assumption leads to significantly more difficult errors-in-variables models.
• Linearity. This means that the mean of the response variable is a linear combination of the parameters (regression coefficients) and the predictor variables. Note that this assumption is much less restrictive than it may at first seem. Because the predictor variables are treated as fixed values (see above), linearity is really only a restriction on the parameters. The predictor variables themselves can be arbitrarily transformed, and in fact multiple copies of the same underlying predictor variable can be added, each one transformed differently. This trick is used, for example, in polynomial regression, which uses linear regression to fit the response variable as an arbitrary polynomial function (up to a given rank) of a predictor variable. This makes linear regression an extremely powerful inference method. In fact, models such as polynomial regression are often "too powerful", in that they tend to overfit the data. As a result, some kind of regularization must typically be used to prevent unreasonable solutions coming out of the estimation process. Common examples are ridge regression and lasso regression. Bayesian linear regression can also be used, which by its nature is more or less immune to the problem of overfitting. (In fact, ridge regression and lasso regression can both be viewed as special cases of Bayesian linear regression, with particular types of prior distributions placed on the regression coefficients.)

• Constant variance (aka homoscedasticity). This means that different response variables have the same variance in their errors, regardless of the values of the predictor variables. In practice this assumption is invalid (i.e. the errors are heteroscedastic) if the response variables can vary over a wide scale. In order to determine for heterogeneous error variance, or when a pattern of residuals violates model assumptions of homoscedasticity (error is equally variable around the 'best-fitting line' for all points of x), it is prudent to look for a "fanning effect" between residual error and predicted values. This is to say there will be a systematic change in the absolute or squared residuals when plotted against the predicting outcome. Error will not be evenly distributed across the regression line. Heteroscedasticity will result in the averaging over of distinguishable variances around the points to get a single variance that is inaccurately representing all the variances of the line. In effect, residuals appear clustered and spread apart on their predicted plots for larger and smaller values for points along the linear regression line, and the mean squared error for the model will be wrong. Typically, for example, a response variable whose mean is large will have a greater variance than one whose mean is small. For example, a given person whose income is predicted to be $100,000 may easily have an actual income of $80,000 or $120,000 (a standard deviation of around $20,000), while another person with a predicted income of $10,000 is unlikely to have the same $20,000 standard deviation, which would imply their actual income would vary anywhere between -$10,000 and $30,000. (In fact, as this shows, in many cases – often the same cases where the assumption of normally distributed errors fails – the variance or standard deviation should be predicted to be proportional to the mean, rather than constant.) Simple linear regression estimation methods give less precise parameter estimates and misleading inferential quantities such as standard errors when substantial heteroscedasticity is present. However, various estimation techniques (e.g. weighted least squares and heteroscedasticity-consistent standard errors) can handle heteroscedasticity in a quite general way. Bayesian linear regression techniques can also be used when the variance is assumed to be a function of the mean. It is also possible in some cases to fix the problem by applying a transformation to the response variable (e.g. fit the logarithm of the response variable using a linear regression model, which implies that the response variable has a log-normal distribution rather than a normal distribution).

• Independence of errors. This assumes that the errors of the response variables are uncorrelated with each other. (Actual statistical independence is a stronger condition than mere lack of correlation and is often not needed, although it can be exploited if it is known to hold.) Some methods (e.g. generalized least squares) are capable of handling correlated errors, although they typically require significantly more data unless some sort of regularization is used to bias the model towards assuming uncorrelated errors. Bayesian linear regression is a general way of handling this issue.
• Lack of multicollinearity in the predictors. For standard least squares estimation methods, the design matrix X must have full column rank p,; otherwise, we have a condition known as multicollinearity in the predictor variables. This can be triggered by having two or more perfectly correlated predictor variables (e.g. if the same predictor variable is mistakenly given twice, either without transforming one of the copies or by transforming one of the copies linearly). It can also happen if there is too little data available compared to the number of parameters to be estimated (e.g. fewer data points than regression coefficients). In the case of multicollinearity, the parameter vector β will be non-identifiable — it has no unique solution. At most we will be able to identify some of the parameters, i.e. narrow down its value to some linear subspace of R^p. See partial least squares regression. Methods for fitting linear models with multicollinearity have been developed;^[1][2][3][4] some require additional assumptions such as "effect sparsity" — that a large fraction of the effects are exactly zero. Note that the more computationally expensive iterated algorithms for parameter estimation, such as those used in generalized linear models, do not suffer from this problem — and in fact it's quite normal to when handling categorically-valued predictors to introduce a separate indicator variable predictor for each possible category, which inevitably introduces multicollinearity.

Beyond these assumptions, several other statistical properties of the data strongly influence the performance of different estimation methods:

• The statistical relationship between the error terms and the regressors plays an important role in determining whether an estimation procedure has desirable sampling properties such as being unbiased and consistent.
• The arrangement, or probability distribution of the predictor variables x has a major influence on the precision of estimates of β. Sampling and design of experiments are highly-developed subfields of statistics that provide guidance for collecting data in such a way to achieve a precise estimate of β.

Interpretation

The sets in the Anscombe's quartet have the same linear regression line but are themselves very different.

A fitted linear regression model can be used to identify the relationship between a single predictor variable x_j and the response variable y when all the other predictor variables in the model are "held fixed". Specifically, the interpretation of β_j is the expected change in y for a one-unit change in x_j when the other covariates are held fixed—that is, the expected value of the partial derivative of y with respect to x_j. This is sometimes called the unique effect of x_j on y. In contrast, the marginal effect of x_j on y can be assessed using a correlation coefficient or simple linear regression model relating x_j to y; this effect is the total derivative of y with respect to x_j.
Care must be taken when interpreting regression results, as some of the regressors may not allow for marginal changes (such as dummy variables, or the intercept term), while others cannot be held fixed (recall the example from the introduction: it would be impossible to "hold t_i fixed" and at the same time change the value of t_i²).
It is possible that the unique effect can be nearly zero even when the marginal effect is large. This may imply that some other covariate captures all the information in x_j, so that once that variable is in the model, there is no contribution of x_j to the variation in y. Conversely, the unique effect of x_j can be large while its marginal effect is nearly zero. This would happen if the other covariates explained a great deal of the variation of y, but they mainly explain variation in a way that is complementary to what is captured by x_j. In this case, including the other variables in the model reduces the part of the variability of y that is unrelated to x_j, thereby strengthening the apparent relationship with x_j.
The meaning of the expression "held fixed" may depend on how the values of the predictor variables arise. If the experimenter directly sets the values of the predictor variables according to a study design, the comparisons of interest may literally correspond to comparisons among units whose predictor variables have been "held fixed" by the experimenter. Alternatively, the expression "held fixed" can refer to a selection that takes place in the context of data analysis. In this case, we "hold a variable fixed" by restricting our attention to the subsets of the data that happen to have a common value for the given predictor variable. This is the only interpretation of "held fixed" that can be used in an observational study.
The notion of a "unique effect" is appealing when studying a complex system where multiple interrelated components influence the response variable. In some cases, it can literally be interpreted as the causal effect of an intervention that is linked to the value of a predictor variable. However, it has been argued that in many cases multiple regression analysis fails to clarify the relationships between the predictor variables and the response variable when the predictors are correlated with each other and are not assigned following a study design.^[5]

Extensions

Numerous extensions of linear regression have been developed, which allow some or all of the assumptions underlying the basic model to be relaxed.

Simple and multiple regression

The very simplest case of a single scalar predictor variable x and a single scalar response variable y is known as simple linear regression. The extension to multiple and/or vector-valued predictor variables (denoted with a capital X) is known as multiple linear regression. Nearly all real-world regression models involve multiple predictors, and basic descriptions of linear regression are often phrased in terms of the multiple regression model. Note, however, that in these cases the response variable y is still a scalar.

General linear models

The general linear model considers the situation when the response variable Y is not a scalar but a vector. Conditional linearity of E(y|x) = Bx is still assumed, with a matrix B replacing the vector β of the classical linear regression model. Multivariate analogues of OLS and GLS have been developed.

Heteroscedastic models

Various models have been created that allow for heteroscedasticity, i.e. the errors for different response variables may have different variances. For example, weighted least squares is a method for estimating linear regression models when the response variables may have different error variances, possibly with correlated errors. (See also Linear least squares (mathematics)#Weighted linear least squares, and generalized least squares.) Heteroscedasticity-consistent standard errors is an improved method for use with uncorrelated but potentially heteroscedastic errors.

Generalized linear models

Generalized linear models (GLM's) are a framework for modeling a response variable y that is bounded or discrete. This is used, for example:

• when modeling positive quantities (e.g. prices or populations) that vary over a large scale — which are better described using a skewed distribution such as the log-normal distribution or Poisson distribution (although GLM's are not used for log-normal data, instead the response variable is simply transformed using the logarithm function);
• when modeling categorical data, such as the choice of a given candidate in an election (which is better described using a Bernoulli distribution/binomial distribution for binary choices, or a categorical distribution/multinomial distribution for multi-way choices), where there are a fixed number of choices that cannot be meaningfully ordered;
• when modeling ordinal data, e.g. ratings on a scale from 0 to 5, where the different outcomes can be ordered but where the quantity itself may not have any absolute meaning (e.g. a rating of 4 may not be "twice as good" in any objective sense as a rating of 2, but simply indicates that it is better than 2 or 3 but not as good as 5).

Generalized linear models allow for an arbitrary link function g that relates the mean of the response variable to the predictors, i.e. E(y) = g(β′x). The link function is often related to the distribution of the response, and in particular it typically has the effect of transforming between the range of the linear predictor and the range of the response variable.
Some common examples of GLM's are:

• Poisson regression for count data.
• Logistic regression and probit regression for binary data.
• Multinomial logistic regression and multinomial probit regression for categorical data.
• Ordered probit regression for ordinal data.

Single index models^{[clarification needed]} allow some degree of nonlinearity in the relationship between x and y, while preserving the central role of the linear predictor β′x as in the classical linear regression model. Under certain conditions, simply applying OLS to data from a single-index model will consistently estimate β up to a proportionality constant.^[6]

Hierarchical linear models

Hierarchical linear models (or multilevel regression) organizes the data into a hierarchy of regressions, for example where A is regressed on B, and B is regressed on C. It is often used where the data have a natural hierarchical structure such as in educational statistics, where students are nested in classrooms, classrooms are nested in schools, and schools are nested in some administrative grouping such as a school district. The response variable might be a measure of student achievement such as a test score, and different covariates would be collected at the classroom, school, and school district levels.

Errors-in-variables

Errors-in-variables models (or "measurement error models") extend the traditional linear regression model to allow the predictor variables X to be observed with error. This error causes standard estimators of β to become biased. Generally, the form of bias is an attenuation, meaning that the effects are biased toward zero.

Others

• In Dempster–Shafer theory, or a linear belief function in particular, a linear regression model may be represented as a partially swept matrix, which can be combined with similar matrices representing observations and other assumed normal distributions and state equations. The combination of swept or unswept matrices provides an alternative method for estimating linear regression models.

Estimation methods

Comparison of the Theil–Sen estimator (black) and simple linear regression (blue) for a set of points with outliers.

A large number of procedures have been developed for parameter estimation and inference in linear regression. These methods differ in computational simplicity of algorithms, presence of a closed-form solution, robustness with respect to heavy-tailed distributions, and theoretical assumptions needed to validate desirable statistical properties such as consistency and asymptotic efficiency.
Some of the more common estimation techniques for linear regression are summarized below.

Least-squares estimation and related techniques

• Ordinary least squares (OLS) is the simplest and thus most common estimator. It is conceptually simple and computationally straightforward. OLS estimates are commonly used to analyze both experimental and observational data.
  The OLS method minimizes the sum of squared residuals, and leads to a closed-form expression for the estimated value of the unknown parameter β:

  

  The estimator is unbiased and consistent if the errors have finite variance and are uncorrelated with the regressors^[7]

  

  It is also efficient under the assumption that the errors have finite variance and are homoscedastic, meaning that E[ε_i²|x_i] does not depend on i. The condition that the errors are uncorrelated with the regressors will generally be satisfied in an experiment, but in the case of observational data, it is difficult to exclude the possibility of an omitted covariate z that is related to both the observed covariates and the response variable. The existence of such a covariate will generally lead to a correlation between the regressors and the response variable, and hence to an inconsistent estimator of β. The condition of homoscedasticity can fail with either experimental or observational data. If the goal is either inference or predictive modeling, the performance of OLS estimates can be poor if multicollinearity is present, unless the sample size is large.
  In simple linear regression, where there is only one regressor (with a constant), the OLS coefficient estimates have a simple form that is closely related to the correlation coefficient between the covariate and the response.
• Generalized least squares (GLS) is an extension of the OLS method, that allows efficient estimation of β when either heteroscedasticity, or correlations, or both are present among the error terms of the model, as long as the form of heteroscedasticity and correlation is known independently of the data. To handle heteroscedasticity when the error terms are uncorrelated with each other, GLS minimizes a weighted analogue to the sum of squared residuals from OLS regression, where the weight for the i^th case is inversely proportional to var(ε_i). This special case of GLS is called "weighted least squares". The GLS solution to estimation problem is

  

  where Ω is the covariance matrix of the errors. GLS can be viewed as applying a linear transformation to the data so that the assumptions of OLS are met for the transformed data. For GLS to be applied, the covariance structure of the errors must be known up to a multiplicative constant.
• Percentage least squares focuses on reducing percentage errors, which is useful in the field of forecasting or time series analysis. It is also useful in situations where the dependent variable has a wide range without constant variance, as here the larger residuals at the upper end of the range would dominate if OLS were used. When the percentage or relative error is normally distributed, least squares percentage regression provides maximum likelihood estimates. Percentage regression is linked to a multiplicative error model, whereas OLS is linked to models containing an additive error term.^[8]
• Iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS) is used when heteroscedasticity, or correlations, or both are present among the error terms of the model, but where little is known about the covariance structure of the errors independently of the data.^[9] In the first iteration, OLS, or GLS with a provisional covariance structure is carried out, and the residuals are obtained from the fit. Based on the residuals, an improved estimate of the covariance structure of the errors can usually be obtained. A subsequent GLS iteration is then performed using this estimate of the error structure to define the weights. The process can be iterated to convergence, but in many cases, only one iteration is sufficient to achieve an efficient estimate of β.^[10][11]
• Instrumental variables regression (IV) can be performed when the regressors are correlated with the errors. In this case, we need the existence of some auxiliary instrumental variables z_i such that E[z_iε_i] = 0. If Z is the matrix of instruments, then the estimator can be given in closed form as

  

• Optimal instruments regression is an extension of classical IV regression to the situation where E[ε_i|z_i] = 0.
• Total least squares (TLS)^[12] is an approach to least squares estimation of the linear regression model that treats the covariates and response variable in a more geometrically symmetric manner than OLS. It is one approach to handling the "errors in variables" problem, and is sometimes used when the covariates are assumed to be error-free.

Maximum-likelihood estimation and related techniques

• Maximum likelihood estimation can be performed when the distribution of the error terms is known to belong to a certain parametric family ƒ_θ of probability distributions.^[13] When f_θ is a normal distribution with mean zero and variance θ, the resulting estimate is identical to the OLS estimate. GLS estimates are maximum likelihood estimates when ε follows a multivariate normal distribution with a known covariance matrix.
• Ridge regression,^[14][15][16] and other forms of penalized estimation such as Lasso regression,^[1] deliberately introduce bias into the estimation of β in order to reduce the variability of the estimate. The resulting estimators generally have lower mean squared error than the OLS estimates, particularly when multicollinearity is present. They are generally used when the goal is to predict the value of the response variable y for values of the predictors x that have not yet been observed. These methods are not as commonly used when the goal is inference, since it is difficult to account for the bias.
• Least absolute deviation (LAD) regression is a robust estimation technique in that it is less sensitive to the presence of outliers than OLS (but is less efficient than OLS when no outliers are present). It is equivalent to maximum likelihood estimation under a Laplace distribution model for ε.^[17]

• Adaptive estimation. If we assume that error terms are independent from the regressors , the optimal estimator is the 2-step MLE, where the first step is used to non-parametrically estimate the distribution of the error term.^[18]

Other estimation techniques

• Bayesian linear regression applies the framework of Bayesian statistics to linear regression. (See also Bayesian multivariate linear regression.) In particular, the regression coefficients β are assumed to be random variables with a specified prior distribution. The prior distribution can bias the solutions for the regression coefficients, in a way similar to (but more general than) ridge regression or lasso regression. In addition, the Bayesian estimation process produces not a single point estimate for the "best" values of the regression coefficients but an entire posterior distribution, completely describing the uncertainty surrounding the quantity. This can be used to estimate the "best" coefficients using the mean, mode, median, any quantile (see quantile regression), or any other function of the posterior distribution.
• Quantile regression focuses on the conditional quantiles of y given X rather than the conditional mean of y given X. Linear quantile regression models a particular conditional quantile, often the conditional median, as a linear function β^Tx of the predictors.
• Mixed models are widely used to analyze linear regression relationships involving dependent data when the dependencies have a known structure. Common applications of mixed models include analysis of data involving repeated measurements, such as longitudinal data, or data obtained from cluster sampling. They are generally fit as parametric models, using maximum likelihood or Bayesian estimation. In the case where the errors are modeled as normal random variables, there is a close connection between mixed models and generalized least squares.^[19] Fixed effects estimation is an alternative approach to analyzing this type of data.
• Principal component regression (PCR)^[3][4] is used when the number of predictor variables is large, or when strong correlations exist among the predictor variables. This two-stage procedure first reduces the predictor variables using principal component analysis then uses the reduced variables in an OLS regression fit. While it often works well in practice, there is no general theoretical reason that the most informative linear function of the predictor variables should lie among the dominant principal components of the multivariate distribution of the predictor variables. The partial least squares regression is the extension of the PCR method which does not suffer from the mentioned deficiency.
• Least-angle regression^[2] is an estimation procedure for linear regression models that was developed to handle high-dimensional covariate vectors, potentially with more covariates than observations.
• The Theil–Sen estimator is a simple robust estimation technique that chooses the slope of the fit line to be the median of the slopes of the lines through pairs of sample points. It has similar statistical efficiency properties to simple linear regression but is much less sensitive to outliers.^[20]
• Other robust estimation techniques, including the α-trimmed mean approach, and L-, M-, S-, and R-estimators have been introduced.

Further discussion

In statistics, the problem of numerical methods for linear least squares is an important one because linear regression models are one of the most important types of model, both as formal statistical models and for exploration of data sets. The majority of statistical computer packages contain facilities for regression analysis that make use of linear least squares computations. Hence it is appropriate that considerable effort has been devoted to the task of ensuring that these computations are undertaken efficiently and with due regard to numerical precision.
Individual statistical analyses are seldom undertaken in isolation, but rather are part of a sequence of investigatory steps. Some of the topics involved in considering numerical methods for linear least squares relate to this point. Thus important topics can be

• Computations where a number of similar, and often nested, models are considered for the same data set. That is, where models with the same dependent variable but different sets of independent variables are to be considered, for essentially the same set of data points.
• Computations for analyses that occur in a sequence, as the number of data points increases.
• Special considerations for very extensive data sets.

Fitting of linear models by least squares often, but not always, arises in the context of statistical analysis. It can therefore be important that considerations of computational efficiency for such problems extend to all of the auxiliary quantities required for such analyses, and are not restricted to the formal solution of the linear least squares problem.
Matrix calculations, like any others, are affected by rounding errors. An early summary of these effects, regarding the choice of computational methods for matrix inversion, was provided by Wilkinson.^[21]

Applications of linear regression

Linear regression is widely used in biological, behavioral and social sciences to describe possible relationships between variables. It ranks as one of the most important tools used in these disciplines.

Trend line

Main article: Trend estimation

A trend line represents a trend, the long-term movement in time series data after other components have been accounted for. It tells whether a particular data set (say GDP, oil prices or stock prices) have increased or decreased over the period of time. A trend line could simply be drawn by eye through a set of data points, but more properly their position and slope is calculated using statistical techniques like linear regression. Trend lines typically are straight lines, although some variations use higher degree polynomials depending on the degree of curvature desired in the line.
Trend lines are sometimes used in business analytics to show changes in data over time. This has the advantage of being simple. Trend lines are often used to argue that a particular action or event (such as training, or an advertising campaign) caused observed changes at a point in time. This is a simple technique, and does not require a control group, experimental design, or a sophisticated analysis technique. However, it suffers from a lack of scientific validity in cases where other potential changes can affect the data.

Epidemiology

Early evidence relating tobacco smoking to mortality and morbidity came from observational studies employing regression analysis. In order to reduce spurious correlations when analyzing observational data, researchers usually include several variables in their regression models in addition to the variable of primary interest. For example, suppose we have a regression model in which cigarette smoking is the independent variable of interest, and the dependent variable is lifespan measured in years. Researchers might include socio-economic status as an additional independent variable, to ensure that any observed effect of smoking on lifespan is not due to some effect of education or income. However, it is never possible to include all possible confounding variables in an empirical analysis. For example, a hypothetical gene might increase mortality and also cause people to smoke more. For this reason, randomized controlled trials are often able to generate more compelling evidence of causal relationships than can be obtained using regression analyses of observational data. When controlled experiments are not feasible, variants of regression analysis such as instrumental variables regression may be used to attempt to estimate causal relationships from observational data.

Finance

The capital asset pricing model uses linear regression as well as the concept of Beta for analyzing and quantifying the systematic risk of an investment. This comes directly from the Beta coefficient of the linear regression model that relates the return on the investment to the return on all risky assets.

Economics

Linear regression is the predominant empirical tool in economics. For example, it is used to predict consumption spending,^[22] fixed investment spending, inventory investment, purchases of a country's exports,^[23] spending on imports,^[23] the demand to hold liquid assets,^[24] labor demand,^[25] and labor supply.^[25]

Source:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_regression

CARA CERDAS MENGUASAI EVIEWS 5

CONTENT

Menjelaskan secara terperinci tentang langkah-langkah mengolah data dengan Eviews 5, disertai dengan gambar-gambar tampilan Eviews 5 pada setiap langkah pengelolaan data, dan disertai teori-teori ekonometrika pada setiap metode pengelolaan data. Content :

1.      Program Eviews 5
Apakah Eviews 5 itu?
Tampilan Eviews 5
Bantuan Penggunaan Eviews 5
Dasar-dasar Object
Membuat dan Menyimpan Workfile
2.      Pengantar Ekonometrika
Pengenalan Ekonometrika
Jenis-jenis Data
§  Time Series
§  Cross Section
§  Pooled (Panel) Data

3.      Ordinary Least Square (OLS)
Regresi Sederhana (OLS Sederhana)
§  Teori Pengantar
§  Prosedur Dalam Eviews 5
§  Interpretasi Hasil Regresi

Regresi Berganda
§  Teori Pengantar
§  Prosedur Dalam Eviews 5
§  Interpretasi Hasil Regresi

Evaluasi Hasil Regresi
Uji t, Uji F, dan Uji R2
Uji asumsi Klasik
§  Uji Multikolinearitas
o   Teori Pengantar
o   Prosedur Dalam Eviews 5
o   Pengujian Hipotesis Multikolinearitas
§  Uji Heteroskedastisitas
o   Teori Pengantar
o   Prosedur Dalam Eviews 5
o   Pengujian Hipotesis Heteroskedastisitas
§  Uji Autokorelasi
o   Teori Pengantar
o   Prosedur Dalam Eviews 5
o   Pengujian Hipotesis Autokorelasi
§  Uji Normalitas
o   Teori Pengantar
o   Prosedur Dalam Eviews 5
o   Pengujian Hipotesis Normalitas

4.      Model Regresi Variabel Dummy
Teori Pengantar
§  Hal-hal Khusus Terkait Model Regresi Variabel Dummy
§  Contoh Kasus

Prosedur Dalam Eviews 5
Interpretasi Hasil Regresi

5.      Regresi Data Panel
Teori Pengantar
§  Pooled Least Square (PLS) / Common Effect
§  Fixed Effect (FE)
§  Random Effect (RE)

Prosedur Dalam Eviews 5
Pemilihan Model Data Panel
§  Uji F
§  Uji Hausman

Interpretasi Hasil Regresi Data Panel

6.      Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)
Pengantar
Prosedur Dalam Eviews 5
Interpretasi Hasil Regresi

7.      ARCH/GARCH
Pengantar
Prosedur Dalam Eviews 5
§  Pengujian Efek ARCH/GARCH
§  Estimasi Model ARCH/GARCH

Interpretasi Hasil Regresi

8.      Persamaan Simultan
Pengantar
§  Istilah-istilah Penting
§  Contoh Persamaan Simultan
§  Masalah Pengidentifikasian
o   Tidak Diidentifikasikan
o   Just/Exactly/Full Identification
o   Over Identification
§  Pengidentifikasian Persamaan Simultan
§  Metode Penyelesaian Persamaan Simultan
o   Indirect Least Square (ILS)
o   Two Stage Least Square (2SLS)

Prosedur Dalam Eviews 5
§  Indirect Least Square (ILS)
§  Two Stage Least Square (2SLS) Langsung
§  Two Stage Least Square (2SLS) Tidak Langsung

Interpretasi Hasil Regresi

9.      Error Correction Model (ECM)
Pengantar
Prosedur Dalam Eviews 5
§  Uji Stasioneritas Data
§  Uji Derajat Integrasi
§  Estimasi OLS
§  Pengujian Residual
§  Estimasi ECM

Interpretasi Hasil Regresi

10.  Vector Auto Regression (VAR)Teori Pengantar
§  Ciri-ciri VAR
§  Kelemahan VAR
§  Langkah-langkah VAR
o   Uji Stasioneritas Data dan Derajat Integrasi
o   Penentual Lag Length
o   Uji Kausalitas Granger
o   Estimasi VAR
o   Impulse Response Function (IRF)
o   Variance Decomposition

Prosedur Dalam Eviews 5
§  Uji Stasioneritas Data
§  Uji Derajat Integrasi
§  Penentual Lag Length
§  Uji Kausalitas Granger
§  Estimasi VAR
§  Impulse Response Function (IRF)
§  Variance Decomposition

Forecasting dengan VAR

11.  Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)
Teori Pengantar
§  Pengertian VECM
§  Langkah-langkah VECM
o   Uji Stasioneritas Data dan Derajat Integrasi
o   Penentual Lag Length
o   Uji Kausalitas Granger
o   Uji Kointegrasi
o   Estimasi VECM
o   Impulse Response Function (IRF) dari VAR
o   Variance Decomposition dari VAR

Prosedur Dalam Eviews 5
§  Uji Stasioneritas Data
§  Uji Derajat Integrasi
§  Penentual Lag Length
§  Uji Kausalitas Granger
§  Uji Kointegrasi
§  Estimasi VECM
§  Impulse Response Function (IRF) dari VECM
§  Variance Decomposition dari VECM

 

Sumber:

http://buku.azzaingroup.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=88:cara-cerdas-menguasai-eview&catid=30:the-community&Itemid=56 

PENGANTAR SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences)

Pengenalan Program SPSS

SPSS adalah sebuah program komputer yang digunakan untuk membuat analisis statistika. SPSS dipublikasikan oleh SPSS Inc.

SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences atau Paket Statistik untuk Ilmu Sosial) versi pertama dirilis pada tahun 1968, diciptakan oleh Norman Nie, seorang lulusan Fakultas Ilmu Politik dari Stanford University, yang sekarang menjadi Profesor Peneliti Fakultas Ilmu Politik di Stanford dan Profesor Emeritus Ilmu Politik di University of Chicago. SPSS adalah salah satu program yang paling banyak digunakan untuk analisis statistika ilmu sosial. SPSS digunakan oleh peneliti pasar, peneliti kesehatan, perusahaan survei, pemerintah, peneliti pendidikan, organisasi pemasaran, dan sebagainya. Selain analisis statistika, manajemen data (seleksi kasus, penajaman file, pembuatan data turunan) dan dokumentasi data (kamus metadata ikut dimasukkan bersama data) juga merupakan fitur-fitur dari software dasar SPSS.

Mengaktifkan program SPSS

Sebelum mengaktifkan program SPSS maka perlu dipastikan terlebih dahulu bahwa komputer yang digunakan sudah terinstall program SPSS (SPSS versi 13). Mengaktifkan program SPSS dapat dilakukan dengan dua cara:

1. Jika pada layar komputer sudah terdapat icon SPSS maka klik icon SPSS tersebut dua kali maka SPSS akan aktif.
2. Jika tidak ada icon maka klik Start, klik program, pilih SPSS for Windows dan langsung klik 1 kali, maka SPPS akan aktif.
3. Jendela SPSS (Windows SPSS)

Artikel selengkapnya bisa diunduh di sini:
widhiarso.staff.ugm.ac.id/files/widhiarso_2010_-_berkenalan_dengan_metode_regresi.pdf 

Sumber:

"herisman blogs"

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